Metas
Naples Home Market Conditions March 2008
The market conditions for Naples covers both the month of March 2008 and the first calendar quarter of 2008, ending March 31, 2008. A monthly analysis reflects activity during a month with comparative data for the previous years of 2007 and 2006. The quarterly analysis covers a longer period of time, therefore, giving a more comprehensive picture of the current market conditions and trends. Trends are important for both buyers and sellers in determining their actions in the Naples real estate market, as well as, cyclical variations.
MARCH ANALYSIS
NEW LISTINGS:
During the month of March a total of 698 homes were listed for sale. The 698 homes listed were lower than March 2007 and 2006, where the total homes listed were 959 and 1100 respectively. The number of home listed in March, other than December 2007 (670), is the lowest volume of new listings since October 2005. The effect of less listings coming on the market is starting to be reflected in the total number of homes available for sale as March is showing 6016 versus 6186 homes in February. Although a slight decline, it is a positive sign for market improvement.
PENDING SALES:
The number of homes where purchase contracts were negotiated was 308. During March 2007 a total of 274 homes were pending sale – March 2008 was an increase of 34 homes or a 12.4% increase. In March 2006 the pending sales totaled 347 homes. The 308 pending sales for March represent the highest number of pending sales since March 2006 where 347 were under contract. One has to go back to August 2005 (323) to find a higher volume of pending sales.
CLOSED SALES:
During the month of March 169 were sold versus 213 in 2007 and 302 in 2006. To the casual observer the number of closings during March may not appear optimistic, however, there are some factors which must be considered – lenders have much stricter underwriting guidelines, fewer liberal loan programs, and the length of time needed to obtain lender approval for possible short sales.
MEDIAN SOLD PRICE:
In the month of March the median price paid a Naples home was $365000. In 2007 the median price was $495000 and in 2006 $489101. The median has declined approximately 26.3% between 2008 and 2007, while from 2006 it is a decline of 25.4%.
INVENTORY:
As stated earlier, there are 6016 homes currently on market which represents about 37 months of inventory to be sold.
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS
NEW LISTINGS:
The number of homes listed during the first quarter of 2007 totaled 2834 while the first quarter of 2007 was 3369 and 2006 was 3576. If one were look at the trend for the previous 3 calendar quarters, it would show an increasing trend line, but it needs to be looked at more critical since the month of January is the highest month for listings.
CLOSED SALES:
In the first calendar quarter of 2008 a total of 437 homes were closed. The closed sales were lower than 2007 with 500 closed sales and 2006 with 688. The implications of lenders’ actions are reflected within the lower volume of closed sales. The closed sales for the first quarter of 2008 are the second lowest starting with the second quarter of 2005. The lowest volume of 406 was during the fourth quarter of 2007.
MEDIAN SOLD PRICE:
The median sold price for a home in Naples during the first quarter was $400000 versus the median prices of $499500 in 2007 and $499275 in 2006. The decline in the median price is about 20% from the previous two first quarters. The median price paid trend line over the immediate five calendar quarters shows a decline, however, the most recent three quarters shows only a 4.4% decline. This could a sign of the market approaching or at the bottom. One does not truly know the bottom of the market until after it passes.
In summary, the real estate market is showing some positive signs where the new listings are decreasing, pending sales are increasing, and median prices are relatively stable over the past three quarters. The negative signs are the lower volume of closed sales and the number of months of inventory for homes for sale.
If you have any questions please do not hesitate to either post them as a comment or e-mail me.
Naples Home Market Update February 08
Some positive signs are continuing to show in the Naples single family home market, but it still remains a buyer’s market. Through out the month March additional commentary, neighborhood or community specific will be posted to better inform both buyers and sellers.
New Listings: In the month of February a total of 887 Naples homes were listed for sale, which down from February 2007 new listings of 993 and February 2006 figure of 1137. The absorption rate of new listings for the February listings is 8.3 months which higher than in previous February’s rates of 6.8 and 6.2 in 2007 and 2006, respectively. The new listings with the lower volume, represents the situation where as less homes on the market the greater the reduction in the number of months of existing inventory of homes for sale. Generally an absorption rate of 6.0 months represents a balanced market between both buyers and sellers of real estate. The new listings for January were 1,127 homes and in December 629.
Pending Sales: During February 2008, 231 Naples homes had offers that were accepted, therefore they are pended sales. Pending sales represents the future closed sales. Pending sales generally close between 30 and 60 days after a contract has been agreed upon. The 231 homes pending sale, is an improvement over 2007 when 219 homes were pending sale. In 2006, the figure was 292. The improvement over 2007 is positive as the number of liberal loan programs available in 2008 are less than in 2007. February pending sales represents the first month in the most recent three months where pending sales have actually shown an increase in absolute numbers. The pending sales in January was 195 and in December 146.
Median Price Paid: The median price for a Naples home in February was $425,000. In 2007 the median price was $445,000 and in 2006 the price was $465,000. Year over year decrease in price was 4.5%. Cumulative price decrease since 2006 is 8.6%.
Closed Sales: The number of closed sales in February 2008 for Naples homes was 107, down from the previous year’s 147 and 2006’s 182.
The inventory of homes presently for sale is 6,186, which represents 38 months of inventory available.
The Naples real estate market still remains a buyers market for selection and price. If the new listings continues to decrease from previous years and pending sales continue to increase over previous years, then the market may have reached the bottom in terms of volumes. The bottom of the market for prices, may have not been achieved at this time, as the inventory of home for sales continues at high level.
Naples Real Estate News 02/25/08
FLORIDA HOME SALES - The mortgage credit crunch and a sluggish economy continued to affect the sales pace of existing homes and condos in Florida in January, with a total of 6,737 existing single-family homes sold statewide, a decrease of 28 percent from January 2007, according to the Florida Association of REALTORS. The statewide median sales price for existing single-family homes was $208,600.
For comparison purposes the sale of existing single-family homes in Bonita Springs was 111, a decrease of 20 percent, with a median sales price of $450,000. In Estero 26 homes were sold, a decrease of 16 percent, the median price was $802,500. Naples single-family homes sold were 16, an increase of 23 percent, with a median price of $463,750.
The areas of Naples, Bonita Springs and Estero are performing stronger than the statewide sales volumes.
HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE - State Farm Insurance, Florida’s largest private property insurer, plans to essentially shut the door to the Sunshine State. State Farm Insurance officials told the state last week that the company would essentially stop selling new homeowners policies in Florida.
HOME TRENDS - Because of their style, relative affordability and durability, metal roofs are becoming a popular alternative to asphalt-shingle roofs. Architectural metal roofs in new-home construction reached a projected 30 percent of the market in 2007, up from 23 percent in 2004, according to the National Roofing Contractors Association.
Blog Makes Top 100 Real Estate Blogs
Today, I was very surprised to find this blog to ranked in the Top 100 Real Estate Blogs as per Top 100 Real Estate Blogs.
The ranking is determined by Google Page Rank, Technorati Rank, and Alexa rankings.
The blog is entitled Bonita Springs Real Estate News and Market Updates and does cover the communities of Estero and Naples as well.
Thank you - Top 100 Real Estate Blogs.
Naples Home Market Conditions January 08
The Naples single family home market conditions is continuing to show a trend of less listings coming on the market in January 2008. Pending sales are also showing an improvement in the number of homes having offers which are being accepted by the sellers. The number of closed sales were down from previous years as well as the median price which was down 7.9% in comparison to last January.
New Listings - during the month of January 2008, a total of 1,127 single family homes in Naples were listed for sale, up from the 629 listings in December. This compares favorably with 1,411 listings in January 2006, and 1,340 listings in January 2005. Traditionally, the month of January has the highest number of new listings. As the number of new listings coming on the market reduces, the inventory of homes will decrease through sales or sellers deciding to remove their houses from the market.
Closed Sales - the volume of closed sales for Naples homes in January 2008 totaled 111, down from December’s 143. This is slightly less than the 140 homes sold in January 2007 and the 204 homes in January 2005. Although the number of closed is less than 2007, the impact of the elimination of sub-prime borrowers purchasing homes in 2007 is not being reflected in this analysis. The national average for sub-prime borrowers is about 16%, so the decrease in closings may not be as significant as the number reflect. January closings are usually one of the lowest of year.
Pending Sales - for the month of January came in at 195 homes for Naples, up from 146 pending sales in December. In 2007 and 2006, the pending sales were 220 and 244, respectively.
Median Purchase Price - the median price paid for a Naples home was $450,000 in January, which is up (7.9%) from December’s median price of $417,000. The median prices paid in 2007 and 2006 were $584,500 and $580,000, respectively.
Naples Home Market Report December 07
In the Naples real estate market single family homes shows some positive trends as one reviews the statistics and analysis. The market report covers not only the month of December, but also for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 and 2007 in totality.
Monthly Analysis:
Listings:
The number of new listings coming on the market in December were 629. In December 2006 the number was 743 or a reduction of 15% in volume. In December 2005, new listings totaled 737 homes or a reduction of about 14%. This represents a positive sign as fewer homes are coming on the market and should eventually be reflected in the gross number of available homes for sale.
Closed Sales:
The number of closed sales for single family homes in the Naples area in December were 143 versus 162 in December 2006 or a volume reduction of about 12%. Considering the tighter requirements for mortgages and the elimination of sub-prime borrower programs, this is positive for the market. When looking at December 2005, the closed sales totaled 235. A reduction is closed sales volume of 39%. December 2005 many of the sub-prime and liberal loans were available. As many of us are aware the market started to change in the fourth quarter of 2005.
Pending Sales:
A total of 146 homes in the Naples area were pending sale as of the end of December. In December 2005, 153 homes were pending sale as of month end. While in 2005 there were a total of 217. With pending sales we can see the trend or impact of the elimination of liberal underwriting requirements and sub-prime borrower programs.
Median Price Paid:
The median price paid for a single family home in the Naples for the month of December 2007 was $417,000. The price paid was $4,150 less than the median price paid in December 2006, which was $421,150. This equates to approximately a reduction of less than 1%. The median price paid in 2005 was $482,400. The reduction in whole dollars was $65,400 or roughly 14%.
For the year over year December analysis one can conclude that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization. The number of months of inventory of existing resale properties in the Naples area is about 34 months.
Quarterly Analysis:
Listings:
During the 4th quarter ending December 31, 2007, the total number of new listings were 2,435 versus 2,604 in 2006 and 2,248 in 2005. The reduction in the new listings for the 4th quarter versus 2006, could be another sign of the market’s eventual strengthening. The increase over 2005, could be the result of short sales, pre-foreclosure and foreclosed properties coming on the market as a result of the sub-prime mortgage crash.
Closed Sales:
A total of 393 single family homes were sold in the 4th quarter of 2007 versus 468 in 2006 and 766 in 2005. The reduction of 75 homes between 2007 and 2006 equates to about 16%. The interesting item to note here is that the national average of sub-prime mortgages to total mortgages is about 16%. Real estate is local, so this may not be the entire reason for the reduction in closed sales volume, but is a major contributing factor.
Median Price:
The median price paid for a home in the Naples area during the 4th quarter of 2007 was $415,000. The median price paid in 2006 was $419,500 and $479,950 in 2005. The median price reductions between 2007 and 2006 was about 1%. However, the reduction between 2007 and 2005 was approximately 13.5%.
2007 Year Analysis:
Listings:
In 2007 there were a total of 10,615 new listings to come on the market for sale. In 2006, the total was 11,247 and 8,170 in 2005. The new listings in 2007 were less than 2006 and could represent a stabilization of new listings for homes coming on the market.
Closed Sales:
During 2007, 1,979 Naples homes were sold compared to 2,441 homes in 2006 and 4,436 in 2005.
Median Price:
The median price paid for a home in Naples in 2007 was $440,000 versus $468,000 in 2006 or a percentage reduction in value of less than 6%. The median price was $474,450 in 2005 (the peak). The reduction in value between 2007 and 2005 was about 7%. What is very interesting to note is that the median price paid for a home in Naples during 2004 was $345,000. The big question is are the prices going to continue to decline? Be sure to read my post on the 2008 real estate forecast from Florida economist, Hank Fishkind.
Florida real estate global perspective has been updated on a newer post.
Naples Home Market Report November 07
Naples Florida Home Sales Market Report - Nov. 2007
There is both good news and bad news for single family homes sold in the Naples area during the month of November 2007.
New Listings:
A total of 832 Naples homes were listed in November. When compared to last November, the number of homes listed was 885 – reduction of about 6.0%. In November 2005, 908 homes were listed – reduction of about 8.4%. Hence, the rate of new listings is slowing, at least looking at November. Could a trend be developing? The reduction in homes coming on the market will eventually have an impact on the number of months of home inventories available for sale.
Median Price Paid:
In the month of November the median price paid for a home in the Naples area was $405,000. In November 2006, the median price paid a home in Naples was $435,000 or reduction in the median price of about 7%. Looking at November 2005, the median price paid was $471,000 – the reduction in the median price is about 14%. The reduction in median price is most likely due to homes being sold in areas where sub-prime mortgages were used to finance the purchase.
Closed Sales:
The closed sales for homes in the Naples during November were 118. In November 2006, the number of closed was 152 and 295 in November 2005; the respective reductions are about 22% and 60%. The reduction in the volume of closed sales appears to be bad news; however, considering the reduction in “liberal” loan programs and more restrictive underwriting criteria, this could be somewhat positive.
Pending Sales:
The volume of pending sales (homes where the seller accepted a buyer’s offer) came in at 178 contracts. The 178, is a reduction of about 3% from 2006’s 184, but a whopping 26% below 2005’s 243 pending sales. Although the drop from 2005 levels is large, the drop from 2006, not good, is positive due to the elimination of “liberal” loan program and stricter underwriting guidelines.
Naples Florida Real Estate News - 10/24/07
HOME SALES - Mirroring the national trend, turmoil in the mortgage market impacted Florida’s housing sector in September, despite continued low unemployment rates and other positive economic activity. Statewide sales of existing single-family homes totaled 8,688 last month, a decrease of 38 percent compared to September 2006 activity, according to Florida Association of REALTORS. The statewide median price for existing single-family homes last month was $221,200.
Read the analysis for the 3rd quarter for Naples homes sold in 2007 with a year over year comparative figures.
Also, read the analysis for Bonita Springs homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2007 with comparative figures for 2006.
FLORIDA REAL ESTATE TAXES - The Florida House thinks it has a better plan for real estate tax reform, but time may be on the Senate’s side in a showdown over the issue. Lawmakers must settle their differences by next Monday, or it will be too late to put a proposed state constitutional amendment on the January 29, 2008 presidential primary ballot.
ECONOMY - Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan said Tuesday that a bloated inventory of new homes, rather than existing homes, has unsettled the U.S. economy; but he expressed optimism that the nation will avoid a recession. “Where the problem lies is in home prices – new home prices, very specifically,” Greenspan said.
HOMEBUYERS PICKY - Homebuyers have many properties to choose from, but can nix one as a possibility quickly if it has a problem that traditionally spooks buyers – even if the problem would cost only pennies to repair.
Naples Single Family Home Market Report 3rd Qtr 07
Presented below are graphs reflecting the Naples real estate market activity along with narrative explanations for the 3rd quarter of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006. The volumes for closed sales, pending sales, and new listings are also included.
Naples Real Estate Homes Sold
The graph below represents the median sold price by month for Naples homes during the period March 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007.
The average median price paid during the year was $464,308. During this period the median price of a single family decreased $39,101 or about 7.99%. The lowest median price for the year was $395,000 during October 2006. During the months of July to December the median sold price was below the average median price for the year. In January the median sold price peaked at $584,500. In February 2007 the median sold price dipped back to $450,000, which was higher than the July to December timeframe.
The median sold price for single family homes trend line reflects a slight downward trend. Looking at the last several months the trend line would reflect an upward trend, which does support Dr. Archer’s comment that now is the time to buy a single family house in Florida.